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..... 1) Be optimistic about the policy and market, and it is expected that there will be a phased "stock-debt double bull" at the end of the year and the beginning of the year...... Industry sectors rose less and fell more, with the motor, precious metals, medical services and automobile sectors among the top gainers, while real estate development, real estate services, automobile services, trade industries, photovoltaic equipment and semiconductors were among the top losers.Record of resumption of trading on 12.9: The index went up and down, which seemed a bit disappointing. Why?

Guotai Junan Securities Research Report said that looking forward to the market outlook: 1) The adjustment of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares in the early stage has been gradually included in the lack of policy space and the expected adverse impact of Trump tariffs. After the US dollar approaches the 107 mark, it will wait and see, and the short-term RMB may stabilize and rebound; 2) Important domestic conferences are just around the corner, and under the circumstances of sluggish domestic demand and rising external pressure, incremental policy space can be opened, including a potentially higher deficit ratio, more transfer payments to local governments to supplement financial resources, and more active measures to promote consumption; 3) In November, China's manufacturing PMI achieved "three consecutive rises", which is also conducive to the maintenance of risk preference and the continuation of long-term sentiment. We believe that the probability of short-term risk events is not high, and the liquidity of the domestic stock market is also supported. Considering the A500 position opening, the allocation of insurance and wealth management products and the year-end ranking of funds, we should actively prepare for the China stock market's cross-year rebound from December 2024 to January 2025. However, in the mid-line dimension, it is expected that the market will still be disturbed in the spring of 2025, and the mid-line will maintain the N-shaped trend judgment. The emergence of systematic stock market still needs to see further measures to expand credit.Guotai Junan Securities Research Report said that looking forward to the market outlook: 1) The adjustment of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares in the early stage has been gradually included in the lack of policy space and the expected adverse impact of Trump tariffs. After the US dollar approaches the 107 mark, it will wait and see, and the short-term RMB may stabilize and rebound; 2) Important domestic conferences are just around the corner, and under the circumstances of sluggish domestic demand and rising external pressure, incremental policy space can be opened, including a potentially higher deficit ratio, more transfer payments to local governments to supplement financial resources, and more active measures to promote consumption; 3) In November, China's manufacturing PMI achieved "three consecutive rises", which is also conducive to the maintenance of risk preference and the continuation of long-term sentiment. We believe that the probability of short-term risk events is not high, and the liquidity of the domestic stock market is also supported. Considering the A500 position opening, the allocation of insurance and wealth management products and the year-end ranking of funds, we should actively prepare for the China stock market's cross-year rebound from December 2024 to January 2025. However, in the mid-line dimension, it is expected that the market will still be disturbed in the spring of 2025, and the mid-line will maintain the N-shaped trend judgment. The emergence of systematic stock market still needs to see further measures to expand credit.ⅴ) Institutional viewpoint

I) market review..... Industry sectors rose less and fell more, with the motor, precious metals, medical services and automobile sectors among the top gainers, while real estate development, real estate services, automobile services, trade industries, photovoltaic equipment and semiconductors were among the top losers...... Today, the three major A-share indexes diverged, and the Shanghai Composite Index oscillated and sorted out, and received a small Yin cross star, which was partially pulled back from the early session to the close. We can see that the support of the main funds is still there, and the Growth Enterprise Market index is weak. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05% to close at 3402.53 points; Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.55% to close at 10,731.66 points; The growth enterprise market index fell 0.81% to close at 2248.63 points. The turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.63 trillion yuan, a decrease of more than 150 billion from last Friday. In addition, judging from the number of daily limit boards in the whole A market, there has been a certain degree of decline recently, and all the strong stocks in early trading today have experienced a sharp drop, and the activity of hot money may be in a state of convergence. At the same time, the market's expectation for heavy meetings may be in the process of price in, and the transaction volume remains at a certain level. Therefore, the market vitality still exists. However, with the passage of time, the defensive mentality of the market is also emerging.